Week 16 NFL picks, odds and greatest bets

The Giants received in Week 15, however they’re nonetheless not the play. (Washington Publish illustration; Photograph by John McDonnell/The Washington Publish)

Remark

Neither of my Week 15 alternatives got here by way of, so the one factor to do on this vacation weekend is to maintain on attempting with two extra picks. I’m 2-2 since taking up for Neil Greenberg.

Take into account that the principle NFL slate for Week 16 is on Saturday, with 11 video games. There are three video games on Christmas together with the same old Thursday and Monday night time video games.

Listed here are my alternatives for Week 16. All spreads and totals taken Tuesday from the consensus odds at VegasInsider.com. All instances Japanese.

1. New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3½)

Choose: Minnesota Vikings -3½

The Giants defeated the Washington Commanders on Sunday night time although they have been outgained by almost 100 complete yards (387 to 288) and in yards per play (6.7 to 4.6, a large disparity) by a Washington offense that ranks twenty seventh in DVOA. Washington made it into the Giants’ purple zone thrice and got here away with solely seven factors, shedding a fumble after which turning it over on downs to finish the sport after some dicey officiating.

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In different phrases, New York was extraordinarily fortunate to win a recreation by which it managed only one offensive landing (it received one other on a fumble return). And now you’re anticipating the Giants’ one-dimensional offense — almost half of New York’s scrimmage performs in opposition to the Commanders have been runs by both Saquon Barkley or Daniel Jones — and shaky protection to maintain up with the Vikings, whose offense is healthier than Washington’s and whose protection approaches respectability, not less than in opposition to all these operating performs New York prefers (Minnesota ranks seventh in anticipated factors allowed per rush).

One thing about this level unfold doesn’t make sense. The Giants closed as four-point underdogs at Washington on Sunday and now are getting three factors at Minnesota, which means that the Vikings are barely worse than the Commanders. Though Minnesota nonetheless is overrated and makes far too many dumb errors (see under), they’re a greater group than Washington and ought to be getting extra of an edge.

Take the short-priced favourite right here in opposition to an underdog that seemingly is getting an excessive amount of credit score for a recreation it in all probability ought to have misplaced.

2. Los Angeles Chargers (-4) at Indianapolis Colts

Choose: Los Angeles Chargers (-4)

I’m fading the Colts not due to their historic collapse in opposition to the Minnesota Vikings on Saturday, however due to how they received into that place within the first place.

Indianapolis constructed its 33-0 lead although its offense barely contributed something. The Colts scored on a pick-six and a blocked punt, recovered a Vikings fumble and had two different first-half drives start on the Vikings 31-yard line after successive turnovers on downs by Minnesota. They gained a grand complete of 21 yards on these two drives — they gained zero on one among them — and settled for 2 discipline objectives. For the sport, Indianapolis averaged a meager 4.3 yards per play — the Vikings averaged six yards per play in opposition to what was speculated to be a fairly good protection — and when Minnesota stopped handing Indianapolis the ball, you noticed what occurred: a comeback of ludicrous proportions. Within the second half and a full extra time interval, the Colts managed all of 132 yards and averaged 3.5 yards per play.

Indianapolis’s greatest offensive weapon — operating again Jonathan Taylor — is probably going out for the season after struggling a high-ankle sprain Saturday. The Chargers, in the meantime, will probably be as wholesome as they’ve been all season. Derwin James, the group’s defensive signal-caller and main tackler, appears prone to return from a quadriceps damage he suffered in Week 12, and Joey Bosa (core/groin damage) additionally might return for the primary time since Week 3. That’s excellent news for a protection that was taking part in fairly nicely with out them, because the Chargers have given up solely three touchdowns to opposing offenses over the previous two video games. They need to have few issues in opposition to a Colts offense that wants an entire lot of assist from the opposite group to attain.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-1)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. | Prime Video

Choose: Jacksonville Jaguars +1

4. Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7½)

Choose: Baltimore Ravens -7½

5. Detroit Lions (-3½) at Carolina Panthers

6. Buffalo Payments (-9½) at Chicago Bears

7. New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (-3)

8. Seattle Seahawks at Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-9½)

9. Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at New England Patriots

Choose: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5

10. Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-5)

11. Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7)

Saturday, 4:05 p.m. | CBS

Choose: San Francisco 49ers -7

12. Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-5½)

Saturday, 4:25 p.m. | Fox

Choose: Philadelphia Eagles +5½

13. Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. | NFL Community

Choose: Pittsburgh Steelers -3

14. Inexperienced Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (-4½)

Choose: Miami Dolphins -4½

15. Denver Broncos (-2) at Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, 4:30 p.m. | CBS, Nickelodeon

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6½) at Arizona Cardinals

Choose: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6½

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