Underdogs, Overs dominate Super Wild Card Weekend; Big bets on Cowboys-Bucs

NFL Super Wild Card Weekend odds proved a wild card, certainly.

Underdogs truly had their day — or two days, because it have been — which was typically good for the bookmakers. As a complete, canines barked, going 4-1 in opposition to the unfold (ATS).

However not essentially in all cases. Such because the one which concerned the third-largest comeback in NFL postseason historical past.

Let’s dive into the Jacksonville Jaguars’ wonderful rally and the remainder of the NFL betting weekend that was.

Motion Jacksonville

The Los Angeles Chargers took full benefit of Jags QB Trevor Lawrence throwing 4 first-half interceptions Saturday night time. L.A. constructed a 27-0 lead with 4:25 remaining within the half, and it appeared the sport was all however over.

John Murray, govt director of The SuperE book, actually didn’t foresee what was about to occur.

“I’m running all the scenarios when it was 27-0. We were gonna win a huge number on the Chargers, especially if they covered the Jaguars teasers,” Murray stated.

Teaser performs are considerably just like parlays, besides bettors can add 6 factors to the unfold for the underdog or subtract 6 factors for the favourite. Within the Chargers-Jags recreation, that typically meant taking the Jaguars from 2.5-point underdogs as much as +8.5, which was a preferred play. Jacksonville moneyline was additionally common.

However in a 27-0 gap, it didn’t seem Jacksonville can be overlaying any quantity, not to mention successful outright. Nevertheless, the Jaguars acquired a TD late within the second quarter to tug inside 27-7, then continued chipping away within the second half.

Bolstered by late Chargers penalties and a missed L.A. area purpose, the Jaguars in the end pulled off a surprising 31-30 victory.

“The Chargers end up not even winning the game outright. It was terrible for us,” Murray stated. “It’s a good lesson, though. In the NFL, you can never be ahead by enough.”

Nevertheless, betting from one sportsbook to a different usually differs. BetMGM vp of buying and selling Jason Scott stated Trevor Lawrence & Co. bailed water for his store on Saturday night time.

“It saved the day,” Scott stated Sunday morning. “It was a very small winner, but it also killed plenty of parlays.”

Frisky Fins

The Miami Dolphins, 14-point street underdogs in opposition to the Buffalo Payments, have been anticipated to take a beating Sunday and head dwelling to South Seaside. And it regarded as if that’s precisely what would occur, with Buffalo charging to a 17-0 lead by early within the second quarter.

However Josh Allen then acquired a bit case of Trevor Lawrence-itis and threw two INTs, main on to 11 second-quarter factors that helped Miami tie the sport at 17. The Payments snuck into halftime with a 20-17 edge, nevertheless it was recreation on from there.

Buffalo barely survived unheralded rookie QB Skylar Thompson and Miami, with the Payments successful 34-31. It was one other underdog cowl, although, and, on this case, it blew up teasers too, which bookmakers gladly accepted.

“We had a lot of Dolphins money on straight bets. But all the parlays and teasers to the Bills overtook that. So it was a good result for us,” South Level sportsbook director Chris Andrews stated.

Previous to the Dolphins-Payments conflict, Scott had this to say:

“This will be our biggest liability of the NFL season to date.”

And that legal responsibility was totally on the Payments. So bettors took it on the chin there.

Bengals Barely Rebuff Baltimore

The Cincinnati Bengals closed as an 8.5-point dwelling favourite at FOX Wager within the Sunday night time recreation. There have been two outcomes strongly most well-liked by Andrews and his South Level threat workforce.

“We either need a Baltimore Ravens outright win or the Bengals to blow them out. One of the two,” Andrews stated beforehand.

With the sport tied at 17 – in a much better matchup than anticipated, with the Ravens nonetheless minus QB Lamar Jackson – the Bengals stepped up with a backbreaker for Baltimore. Going through third-and-goal on the 1-yard line, Ravens QB Tyler Huntley tried to leap and attain the ball over the purpose line.

As a substitute, he fumbled, and Bengals defensive finish Sam Hubbard pulled off a 98-yard scoop-and-score. That proved to be the successful margin in a 24-17 Cincy victory. Which was the one consequence Andrews actually didn’t need: a Bengals win and a Ravens cowl.

So the bettors – and significantly the sharp bettors – acquired a W in that one.

“The sharpest guys took 9.5 and 9 with the Ravens. And even at 8.5 and 8, the sharper money [was] on Baltimore,” Andrews stated.

Buccaneers upset Cowboys in Nick Wright’s picks getting into the NFL Playoffs

Buccaneers upset Cowboys in Nick Wright's picks entering the NFL Playoffs

Nick Wright reveals his picks for Wild Card Weekend, together with Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cowl vs. Dallas Cowboys.

Monday Night time Decides It All

The betting public – all these leisure bettors who like taking favorites and Overs within the NFL – acquired Super Wild Card Weekend off to a robust begin.

The San Francisco 49ers, 9-point dwelling favorites in opposition to the Seattle Seahawks, truly discovered themselves trailing 17-16 at halftime. However rookie QB Brock Purdy & Co. then scored the subsequent 25 factors and rolled to a 41-23 win and canopy. Even with the Jags’ wild end result proving good for BetMGM, the 49ers’ win nonetheless had bettors out in entrance of Scott’s store.

Nevertheless, all three underdogs lined Sunday. Together with aforementioned Miami and Baltimore, the New York Giants – 2.5-point ‘dogs at Minnesota – won outright 31-24.

For BetMGM, that pretty much leveled the match heading into the Dallas Cowboys-Tampa Bay Buccaneers showdown.

“It’s a tie going into Monday Night time Soccer on Super Wild Card Weekend,” Scott stated, likening it to a boxing match. “Bettors won Saturday on points, books win Sunday on points. The decider is Monday. There are plenty of Cowboys moneyline parlays to duck.”

Late Sunday night time, the Cowboys have been -2.5-point favorites at most books, after opening -3 and even -3.5 at some spots again on Jan. 8. Bettors are actually enthused by Tom Brady and the Bucs as dwelling underdogs.

Significantly sharp bettors.

“We took some really sharp play on the Bucs,” Murray stated, noting The SuperE book opened this recreation larger than most sportsbooks, at Cowboys -3.5. “The sharps were happy to take 3.5 and happy to take 3 with the Bucs. But I do think we’ll see some public support for Dallas.”

Caesars Sports activities reported one large guess to this point on Cowboys-Bucs: $110,000 on Below 45.5.

Talking of main wagers …

I Like Big Bets and I Can not Lie

One excessive curler at Caesars acquired nearly the worst of the Ravens-Bengals unfold and nonetheless almost cashed the ticket. The bettor put $880,000 on Baltimore +6.5 early within the week, maybe anticipating that Lamar Jackson can be underneath middle.

By Thursday, when it was clear Jackson wouldn’t play, the road acquired as excessive as Ravens +10. Finally it dialed right down to +7.5/+8, and Baltimore fell 24-17 – leaving that bettor a half-point wanting pushing and 1 level from an enormous cashout. And it took that loopy 98-yard fumble return to lose the guess.

Different large performs at Caesars:

  • $250,000 Jaguars moneyline +100 vs. Chargers (win)
  • $330,000 Payments -13 vs. Dolphins (loss)
  • $110,000 Seahawks-49ers Below 43 (loss)

And from BetMGM over the weekend:

  • $500,000 Seahawks +10.5 (-125) at 49ers (loss)
  • $550,000 Chargers-Jags Below 47.5 (loss)

The truth is, the Over is 5-0 up to now on Super Wild Card Weekend, with first-half Overs going 4-1. Looks as if Cowboys-Bucs – with a complete of 45.5 – ought to be due for some regression to the imply. However then, it additionally appeared as if the Chargers ought to’ve been a mortal lock to win and canopy.

Talking of the Chargers, some bettors turned a bit into quite a bit by enjoying Jaguars in-game moneyline after Jacksonville fell into that large gap in opposition to the Chargers. A sampling:

  • $443 Jaguars in-game moneyline +2250, to win $9,967.50 at Arduous Rock Sportsbook
  • $1,500 Jags in-game moneyline +800, to win $12,000 at Arduous Rock
  • $10,000 (OK, that’s not precisely a bit, however …) Jags in-game moneyline +750, to win $75,000 at Caesars Sports activities

Right here’s hoping Cowboys-Bucs is as riveting as just about the remainder of Super Wild Card Weekend. Preserve it cheap. By no means guess greater than you’ll be able to afford to lose. Get pleasure from Monday night time!

Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He’s a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting area. He’s primarily based in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Comply with him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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