NFL Week 3 odds, picks and finest bets

Late in Week 2, we lastly received our first win of the season when the Houston Texans coated a 10-point unfold, dropping to the Denver Broncos, 16-9, in a recreation the Texans led getting into the fourth quarter. As talked about final week, first-year Denver head coach Nathaniel Hackett remains to be looking for his footing, making it powerful to belief this Broncos squad for the foreseeable future.

Denver’s followers did their finest to assist the rookie coach final week, ensuring to shout out the play clock to maintain a way of urgency on the high of Hackett’s thoughts. If solely the followers may assist the Broncos execute contained in the 20-yard line. Denver is 0 for 4 with two turnovers within the purple zone this season, scoring 20 fewer factors than anticipated based mostly on the down, distance and subject place of every play, in response to knowledge from TruMedia. That’s seven fewer factors than the Indianapolis Colts — the second-worst workforce within the purple zone by two weeks.

The Cleveland Browns’ loss goes to depend in opposition to us, however it actually shouldn’t. Operating again Nick Chubb scored his third landing of the day with 1 minute 55 seconds left to push the rating to 30-17. If Chubb had stopped wanting the tip zone, Cleveland may have run out the clock — and coated the unfold — because the New York Jets had no timeouts remaining, one thing Chubb later acknowledged.

The important thing numbers for NFL betting — and use them to your benefit

As a substitute, the Jets scored two touchdowns within the last 82 seconds for a 31-30 victory, turning into the primary workforce in additional than 20 years to beat a 13-point deficit and win in such a span. Based on ESPN, NFL groups “had won 2,229 consecutive games when leading by at least 13 points in the final two minutes.” Thanks, Cleveland.

As for the third Week 2 advice, the New Orleans Saints’ look-ahead wager in opposition to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was the suitable learn. The early +160 cash line worth — wager $100 to win $160 — seemed to be mispriced when in comparison with the purpose unfold. Certainly, the Saints cash line closed between +125 and +140, giving an edge to anybody who snatched the +160 worth. The Saints led at halftime and had been even favored in reside markets throughout the recreation, making that +160 worth seem even higher. Then the wheels got here off, and the Saints misplaced to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 20-10.

Nonetheless, that could be a wager we should always make each time. The closing line worth confirmed that the market agreed with our determination, and the expectation of an edge like that might be to win $0.13 for each $1 wagered. That’s optimistic expectation to get enthusiastic about.

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The Philadelphia Eagles level unfold is on the transfer. Philadelphia’s Week 3 recreation opened with the Eagles favored by one on the street in opposition to the Washington Commanders and rapidly moved to -4 — even earlier than kickoff of the Eagles’ Monday evening recreation. Then, after the Eagles trounced the Minnesota Vikings, 24-7, in prime time, the unfold finally widened to Eagles -6½. It’s an costly -6½, too, that means most oddsmakers have the worth at -112 or -115 — wager $112 or $115 to win $100 — so we may see it shut on the key variety of -7 by recreation time.

Nonetheless, it’s a warranted transfer. Philadelphia is scoring 11 extra factors per recreation than anticipated based mostly on the down, distance and subject place of every play (per knowledge from Trumedia), and Washington is lower than half that at six extra factors per recreation than anticipated. On protection, the Eagles are saving 1½ factors per recreation whereas the Commanders enable 4 factors per recreation greater than anticipated. Philadelphia can be averaging 1.5 web yards per play whereas Washington is at -1.0 web yards per play.

Picks had been made in opposition to the consensus level spreads as of Tuesday afternoon; odds which have since modified have been up to date within the daring kind, however the picks are locked in on the earlier odds.

Inexperienced Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

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Decide: Packers +3 at -125 or higher or +120 on the cash line (This line has since moved down)

The Packers put collectively a powerful displaying at dwelling in opposition to Chicago on Sunday evening, gaining a primary down or landing on 26 of their 31 down sequence in opposition to the Bears and scoring 27 factors. That’s a major turnaround from the week earlier than, when the Packers managed simply seven factors in a Week 1 loss in opposition to the Minnesota Vikings, and it might be an indication of what’s to come back as Aaron Rodgers adjusts to his new offensive teammates.

Plus, the Buccaneers ought to have roster considerations at a number of key spots, particularly vast receiver. Mike Evans has been suspended for one recreation for his half in an altercation in Week 2. Chris Godwin and Julio Jones each missed Week 2 due to accidents, doubtlessly leaving Russell Gage, Breshard Perriman and Scotty Miller because the lead vast receivers. Tampa Bay’s offensive line can be in disarray, and Tom Brady voiced his displeasure with the road’s efficiency. The Packers ought to be capable to do what the Saints couldn’t within the fourth quarter: Preserve issues shut.

Buffalo Payments (-6) at Miami Dolphins

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Decide: Miami Dolphins +5½ or +6

The Payments, just like the Packers, are coming off a powerful displaying on nationwide tv, demolishing the Tennessee Titans, 41-7, on Monday evening. Nonetheless, the Titans restricted themselves on offense; they had been dedicated to working Derrick Henry regardless of his ineffectiveness, hampering their assault. Miami isn’t practically as one-dimensional. In reality, the Dolphins are a workforce on the rise with a possible MVP candidate in quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

Tua for MVP? After one other bonkers week, his odds are rising.

Tagovailoa is guiding Miami’s offense to just about 14 extra factors per recreation than anticipated based mostly on the down, distance and subject place of every play, per knowledge from TruMedia. Buffalo’s offense, by comparability, is scoring seven extra factors per recreation than anticipated. Buffalo will even be enjoying on the street on quick relaxation, which may assist stage the enjoying subject on protection.

Feeling daring? Sprinkling a little bit on the Dolphins cash line at +200 or higher isn’t a nasty concept, both.

The performs above characterize our greatest bets of the week as a result of our evaluation reveals their worth is essentially the most profitable in contrast with what we count on to occur as soon as the groups take the sector. Under, you can find against-the-spread picks for the entire video games on this week’s schedule. Nonetheless, making an attempt to select each recreation is one thing of a idiot’s errand. The home wins so typically partly as a result of bettors attempt to make too many performs when the chances aren’t of their favor. Preserve that in thoughts when evaluating the remaining video games from the Week 3 slate.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-4)

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Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video

Decide: Pittsburgh Steelers +5 (This line has since moved down)

Baltimore Ravens (-2½) at New England Patriots

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Decide: New England Patriots +3 (This line has since moved down)

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers

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Decide: Carolina Panthers +3

Philadelphia Eagles (-6½) at Washington Commanders

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Decide: Philadelphia Eagles -5 (This line has since moved up)

Cincinnati Bengals (-5) at New York Jets

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Decide: New York Jets +4½ (This line has since moved up)

Las Vegas Raiders (-2) at Tennessee Titans

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Decide: Las Vegas Raiders -2

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-5½) at Indianapolis Colts

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Decide: Indianapolis Colts +6½ (This line has since moved down)

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6)

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Decide: Minnesota Vikings -6

Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers (-7)

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Decide: Jacksonville Jaguars +7

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-½)

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Decide: Seattle Seahawks -2 (This line has since moved down)

Los Angeles Rams (-3½) at Arizona Cardinals

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Decide: Los Angeles Rams -4 (This line has since moved down)

San Francisco 49ers (-2) at Denver Broncos

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Decide: San Francisco 49ers -1 (This line has since moved up)

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-1)

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Monday, 8:15 p.m. | ESPN, ABC, ESPN2

Decide: New York Giants -2½ (This line has since moved down)

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