NFL odds Week 3: Ride with the Jaguars and Steelers, different finest bets

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports activities NFL Analyst

One other week is within the ebook, which implies it is one other likelihood for me to speak about my favourite pastime, the previous gridiron. 

Now that we’re formally in Autumn and the leaves are starting to fall, that is the primary signal that the NFL season is kicking into gear and the drunk deliriousness of merely having soccer again now not suffices. And when you’re champing on the bit to get some wagers in like me, let’s get proper into it. 

Listed here are my finest bets for Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season, with odds courtesy of FOX Wager.

Steelers @ Browns (8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon Prime)

It is a maintain your nostril and wager on a reliable coach spot as a result of Pittsburgh’s offense is putrid. Take a look at these ranks: thirtieth in yards per play, twenty eighth in passing and nineteenth in crimson zone scoring. It’s exhausting to put in writing about something they do nicely in the mean time. The offensive design is boring, uncreative and predictable.  

On prime of that, the Steelers are on a brief week. I don’t anticipate their offense to get a lot going.   

Nevertheless, the Browns aren’t reliable to cowl 4 factors in the mean time. Sure, they run the ball nicely, however they’re going through a Steelers protection that may stuff the run.   

Granted, the lack of T.J. Watt has harm the Steelers’ speeding protection, particularly the move rush. The dearth of strain ought to give Jacoby Brissett time to move, however do you belief him to move the ball nicely towards this Steelers protection? I don’t. 

The one means I really feel comfy on this matchup is by wagering on what I do know.  

First, Cleveland struggles in division video games. 

Second, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin all the time has his groups prepared for this case. General, Tomlin’s Steelers are 67% towards the unfold as an underdog and 70% towards the unfold as an underdog off a straight-up loss. His capability to inspire as an underdog is unparalleled.  

In the event you’re nonetheless not comfy with the 4 factors, you possibly can put the Steelers in a teaser with one other crew this weekend for some further cushion. 

PICK: Steelers (+4 at FOX Wager at time of choose) to lose by fewer than 4 factors (or win outright)

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In a change of plans on Wednesday, Tom Brady practiced regardless of his schedule usually calling for him to relaxation at the present time.

Lions @ Vikings (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

This whole is so excessive, however I need to hammer the over on this contest. The Lions are averaging over 30 factors per recreation, however they permit over 30 factors per recreation on protection. They’re mainly a Huge 12 crew.  

Simply how dangerous is their protection? Since 2019 they’ve led the league in factors allowed, passing yards allowed and highest opponent passer score allowed.  

There are two Kirk Cousins: The quarterback that performs at 1 p.m. ET and the quarterback who performs on Monday Evening soccer. The quarterback who performs at 1 p.m. ET completes extra passes, throws for extra yards per try and has means much less interceptions. 

That is the Cousins I anticipate Sunday towards the Lions. It is a get-right recreation for Cousins after the powerful one on Monday night time. 

However again to the Lion’s offense. They’ve an especially highly effective and dynamic speeding assault that leads the NFL in explosive offensive performs by the season’s first two weeks. 

However, the Vikings protection is reeling after being gashed by the Eagles on Monday Evening Soccer, and I’m positive the Lions are drawing up a plan to use these drained Minnesota defenders’ legs.  

I’ll take the over on this recreation with two offenses that may transfer the ball towards two defenses which might be struggling. 

PICK: Over 53 whole factors scored mixed between each groups at FOX Wager 

Jaguars @ Chargers (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS) 

The Jaguars are enjoying wonderful soccer proper now though they’re 1-1 after two weeks. Soccer Outsiders DVOA metric has Jacksonville because the second most effective crew within the NFL heading into Week 3.  

Head coach Doug Pederson has second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence enjoying on the stage individuals anticipated of him. He’s finishing 9 p.c extra passes this season, has extra passing yards per try and has reduce down on dangerous performs.  

The Jaguars offensive line and speeding assault is way improved, and they’re going to want these tackles to play nicely once more this weekend towards a Chargers move rush that may spoil an offensive recreation plan.  

On the opposite aspect of the ball, the Jaguars protection has been excellent up to now this season. They rank fifth in opponent passer score, have pressured no less than three turnovers in each video games and have particular person gamers reaching their potential — together with move rusher Josh Allen with two sacks and rookie linebacker Devin Lloyd with 17 tackles up to now.  

The Chargers may be with out Keenan Allen once more this weekend, however extra importantly, quarterback Justin Herbert is injured. He’s listed as day-to-day with fractured rib cartilage, and whereas he can play by the ache, it will get more durable as soon as he’s hit on Sunday.  

How efficient can he be by the sport? Laborious to know.  

The Chargers can try and lean on their run recreation for offense, however that has not been good this season up to now. They rank thirty first within the NFL with 2.7 yards per try.  

I’ll gladly take a assured Jaguars crew to cowl the seven factors towards a Chargers crew that all the time leaves me wanting for extra.  

Decide: Jaguars (+7 at FOX Wager) to lose by fewer than 7 factors (or win outright) 

Geoff Schwartz performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 totally different groups. He began at proper sort out for the College of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior 12 months. He’s an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities. Comply with him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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