NFL odds Week 2: Warren Sharp’s betting edges on Vikings, Eagles, Bucs

By Warren Sharp
FOX Sports activities NFL Author

I’m grateful for the chance to share weekly evaluation with you proper right here at FOX Sports activities.

I’ll share weekly recaps of what went proper and mistaken for groups, coaches and particular person gamers. And I’ll share recreation previews, mixing mismatches, edges, expectations and predictions. Sure, a few of will probably be very nerdy and data-intensive, however I’ll all the time again up and provide you with a simple takeaway. 

Hopefully, you’ll learn a recap and say, “I noticed that, but I didn’t realize it was THAT bad!” My purpose is so that you can learn a preview, watch the sport unfold, and say, “Hey, that’s what Warren said might happen!”

Making an attempt to forecast video games means one factor: We’re within the enterprise of predicting the long run, and that’s by no means straightforward. However my purpose is to offer insights you didn’t know earlier than studying. 

With that stated, let’s dive into my favourite edges for Week 2 of the season, with odds courtesy of FOX Wager.

Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles (8:30 p.m. ET Monday on ABC)

The Eagles operating backs gained +0.31 EPA/rush, No. 2 within the NFL in Week 1.   

The one drawback was that they gave up +0.36 EPA/rush to the Lions. Philadelphia’s run protection additionally allowed 2.2 yards earlier than contact per rush, which was fifth-worst within the league final week.   

And here’s a extra astonishing reality: In opposition to 11 personnel RB rushes, the Eagles’ run protection allowed: 

+0.56 EPA/rush, 9.6 YPC and 6.87 yards after contact per rush 

All of those clearly ranked worst within the NFL in week 1. 

On 15 runs from 11 personnel, the Lions totaled 144 yards. 

What was odd was the Lions’ passing assault was not threatening in any way, as Jared Goff averaged simply 5.8 YPA. The Eagles’ protection didn’t must deal with stopping a passing assault with WR1 as Amon-Ra St. Brown and WR2 as DJ Chark. 

Now, right here comes an issue. 

There was no protection in any way, which was mentioned as probably the most improved this offseason, just like the Inexperienced Bay Packers. Some had been suggesting this would possibly end because the No. 1 ranked protection within the NFL this 12 months. 

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Colin Cowherd reveals his Prime 10 groups heading into Week 2.

And when the Vikings had been in 11 personnel vs. the Packers, they gained +0.16 EPA (No. 6), 6.0 YPC (No. 6) and posted a 62% success price on these makes an attempt (No. 3).   

That was towards the Packers.  

Now, they’ll face the Eagles’ run protection, which ranked DEAD LAST towards 11 personnel towards the Lions in Week 1. 

What’s extra, the Vikings made an enormous shift in philosophy this season to make use of extra 11 personnel. 

Have a look at the share of Vikings runs that got here from 11 personnel within the first half of video games:

Final 12 months: 24.8% (No. 30) 
This 12 months: 61.5% (No. 7) 

No group shifted extra towards utilizing 11 personnel runs in Week 1. 

Eagles DC Jonathan Gannon wasn’t simply unhealthy vs. 11 personnel runs this season; have a look at final season as effectively: 

2021: 4.92 YPC (No. 30), 47.4% success (No. 31), +0.01 EPA/att (No. 22) 

And what’s wild is for those who take away 11 personnel runs and have a look at all different runs vs. the Eagles final 12 months: 

2021: 3.7 YPC (No. 9), 36.1% success (No. 16), -0.11 EPA/att (No. 14) 

This was an above-average run protection towards non-11 personnel runs, however a transparent bottom-of-the-barrel run protection vs. when going through 11 personnel runs. 

This 12 months towards 11? 

2022: 9.6 YPC (No. 32), 60% success (No. 29), +0.56 EPA/att (No. 32) 

And now they may face a group that shifted extra to operating out of 11 personnel than another group within the NFL.

After which there’s the Eagles’ move protection. 

The Eagles received stress on simply 14.8% of early-down dropbacks, which ranked thirtieth within the NFL final week. 

You had higher get stress on Kirk Cousins. 

Listed below are final 12 months’s splits for Cousins with and with out stress: 

When pressured: -0.34 EPA/att and 5.2 YPA (No. 30 of 35 QBs) 
With out stress: +0.37 EPA/att and eight.6 YPA (No. 3 of 35 QBs) 

After which there’s one closing query on this aspect of the ball: 

How do the Eagles permit Goff, who had a completion share over expectation (CPOE) of -11.0%, to attain 35 factors with zero defensive scores? 

The Lions’ 5 offensive touchdowns: 

9-play, 75-yard TD drive 
10-play, 75-yard TD drive 
14-play, 75-yard TD drive 
8-play, 75-yard TD drive 
11-play, 72-yard TD drive 

The Lions aren’t a big-play offense just like the Vikings, as this isn’t an explosive downfield offense. And but they nonetheless had been in a position to maintain drives and transfer the ball down the sector successfully. 

Mark Schlereth, Adam Amin break down Eagles’ win

Mark Schlereth, Adam Amin break down Eagles' win

Mark Schlereth and Adam Amin react to Philadelphia’s victory at Detroit and A.J. Brown’s robust debut.

Switching to speak Eagles offense, let’s start with the dynamic Jalen Hurts brings. 

Final 12 months the Vikings performed two dashing QBs – Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. Each QBs led their groups to 34 factors. Murray solely ran 5 instances however averaged +0.13 EPA/carry and 6.2 YPC and added 1 TD on the bottom. Jackson ran the ball 21 instances and gained 120 dashing yards, recording +0.18 EPA/carry and 5.7 YPC with a 70% success price. 

In Week 1, Jalen Hurts ran the ball 17 instances, gained +0.21 EPA/rush and 5.3 YPC. There is no such thing as a doubt Hurts will look to run the ball when alternatives current themselves towards the Vikings. 

Because it pertains to Hurts and “what this offense is,” I’ll level this out within the recreation’s first three quarters: 

Designed runs by quarter: 

Q1: 2 
Q2: 1 
Q3: 0 

Scrambles by quarter: 
Q1: 4 
Q2: 3 
Q3: 3 

The Eagles appeared to ease Hurts extra into the Week 1 recreation contemplating he was out for a number of weeks. 

In one of many more strange stats that depart you scratching your head, the Packers ranked second-best within the NFL in share of early-down performs which gained a primary down. 

On 36% of the Packers’ early-down performs, they gained a primary down. Solely the Chiefs had been higher (40%), and the NFL common was down at 24.7%.   

Whereas it appeared like a dominant Vikings win, this recreation may have been massively completely different. 

On the very first play of the sport for the Packers, rookie Christian Watson dropped a walk-in landing bomb from Aaron Rodgers. The Packers went on to punt the ball on that drive. 

On their third drive, they went 79 yards whereas being compelled into third down solely as soon as however turned the ball over on downs on the Vikings’ 1-yard line. 

On their first drive out of the half, the Packers fumbled on their very own 44-yard line, which the Vikings became factors. 

Their second drive out of the half, they drove 75 yards with out being compelled into a 3rd down in any respect and scored a landing from the Vikings’ 2-yard line. 

However of their very subsequent drive, they drove from their 25-yard line to the Vikings’ 18-yard line whereas reaching third down solely twice, solely to show it over on downs as soon as once more. 

The Vikings blitzed 4 instances and had been one among two groups to get stress on 0% of their blitzes. Total, the Vikings received stress on simply 29% of dropbacks (No. 21). 

And so they ranked twenty eighth in stress price within the first three quarters of the sport (22.7%). 

This was towards a Packers offensive line that was taking part in with out a number of starters. 

When Hurts was unpressured final week vs. the Lions, he ranked: 

No. 2 in YPA (10.1), No. 8 in EPA/att (+0.34) and No. 11 in success price (55%) out of 33 qualifying QBs. 

On the bottom, right here’s a wild stat favoring the Eagles’ run offense: 

The Vikings’ run protection allowed 2.9 yards earlier than contact per rush (No. 31) and +0.23 EPA/att (No. 30) to early down RB runs final week. 

They had been the one protection to rank bottom-five in each metrics.   

And that was whereas going through a Packers offense with out two OL starters and Sammy Watkins beginning as WR1. 

The Eagles’ offensive line is 100% wholesome and has AJ Brown commanding the secondary’s full consideration.

At something lower than 51 factors, I’d be trying towards the over. The one worry is “prime-time” Kirk Cousins exhibiting up. 

PICK: Beneath 51 factors (at time of decide at FOX Wager) complete factors scored between each groups mixed

Atlanta Falcons @ Los Angeles Rams (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday on FOX and the FOX Sports activities App)

The defending Tremendous Bowl champions had the fourth-best odds to repeat after Brady returned to the Bucs and the second-best odds to win the NFC.   

And earlier than final Thursday’s kickoff, they had been favored by 13 factors on this recreation in the summertime markets. 

When this line reopened following the Sunday video games, it was at +12.5 for the Falcons. This line has taken regular Falcons cash to drop all of it the best way right down to and thru the ten, right down to +9.5.   

After which it took Rams cash to maneuver again to the place it presently sits at +10.5. 

“Rams looked utterly incompetent in every phase”

"Rams looked utterly incompetent in every phase"

Nick Wright explains what a dismal Week 1 efficiency means for Matthew Stafford and the Tremendous Bowl champs.

The Rams have minimal home-field benefit, and there does look like some anchoring right here tied to final season.   

The Rams ran a conservative assault in Week 1, passing the ball on simply 58% of their early downs within the first half, which ranked No. 14 within the NFL. Final 12 months, they had been 61% which ranked sixth-highest. 

Particularly, on first downs within the first half, the Rams ran the ball on 62% of performs, which was the fifth-highest within the NFL. Final 12 months, they handed at a 54% clip, which was Eleventh-highest. 

Final week towards the Saints, the Falcons’ run protection ranked sixteenth in success price allowed to operating backs. Particularly on early down runs within the first three quarters, the Falcons ranked fifteenth in success price allowed and twelfth in EPA/att allowed.  

Undoubtedly, the Rams are extra gifted, have extra depth and are the higher group. 

And there’s little question an angle I mentioned final week is related right here. And that’s this:   

Since 2011, groups off of Thursday evening soccer in Week 1 who’ve these three additional days of relaxation benefit are: 

17-3 straight up (85%) 
14-6 towards the unfold (70%) 

These outcomes are no matter whether or not they win or lose on Thursday. No matter whether or not they’re spectacular or unimpressive. 

Luster fades, and folks overlook how good a group appeared in the event that they received. And within the Rams’ case, in the event that they appeared unhealthy, they’ve extra time to work on what they should enhance. 

However there’s this angle that seemingly hurts the Rams: 

Groups off a house loss in Week 1 who’re house favorites in Week 2 are simply 3-11 ATS since 2004 (21%), and solely 5 of those 14 video games have gone over (36%).   

These groups do are likely to win (9-5 SU) however anticipating them to take action in a flashy method to achieve margin is much less doubtless. They’re merely making an attempt to lock in a win. And after they’re main late, they don’t go for margin and simply attempt to run out the clock. 

As such, groups favored by over a landing are 4-0 SU however 0-4 ATS since 2004. And no group (not one) has been favored by greater than 10 factors because the Rams are right here. 

Including one different angle that would scare any Rams backer: Groups off a house loss in Week 1 who’re house favorites in Week 2 AND PLAY A TEAM ALSO OFF A WEEK 1 LOSS are 0-8 ATS since 2003.

At one level, earlier than having access to play-by-play information, I used to be extra of a pattern bettor. That was over a decade in the past. However there are particular tendencies right here to assist the truth that the Rams may be getting barely overvalued within the betting market proper now with this huge of a quantity.

I’d lean Falcons with the ten.5 factors. 

PICK: Atlanta Falcons (+10.5 at FOX Wager) to lose by fewer than 10.5 factors (or win outright)

Different recreation matchup and betting notes: 

Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports activities app)

The Commanders handed the ball on the sixth-highest price final week.  

Compared, the quarterback the Lions protection simply confronted, Jalen Hurts, threw only one move over 15 yards downfield and solely 4 complete passes over 10 yards downfield: 

These went 3-for-4 for +1.42 EPA/att and 22.5 YPA towards the Lions. However he merely centered on throwing beneath. 

Carson Wentz threw practically 3 times as usually over 10 yards downfield.   

And now he’ll give you the chance to take action towards the protection that ranked thirtieth final 12 months in EPA/att (+0.71) on passes thrown over 10 yards downfield. The Lions allowed an eye-popping 56% of such passes to be accomplished final 12 months (No. 31) for 13.4 YPA (No. 32). 

Carson Wentz’s Washington debut

Carson Wentz's Washington debut

Chris Myers and Robert Smith break down Carson Wentz’s four-TD efficiency in a debut victory for the Commanders.

This 12 months, the Lions’ protection is off to an excellent worse begin, albeit the Eagles didn’t even trouble to check them very a lot. 

Nevertheless it’s not as if the Commanders’ secondary is significantly better. Final season, they allowed +0.66 EPA/att (No. 29) to passes thrown over 10 yards downfield, together with 56% completions (No. 30). 

The Lions began out towards the Eagles rather more aggressively downfield than final 12 months.

Within the first half, earlier than the Eagles opened up an enormous lead, the Lions threw 33% of all makes an attempt 10-plus yards downfield.   

That ranked tenth highest within the NFL. 

Final 12 months, they ranked thirty second on this metric, throwing simply 24% of makes an attempt 10-plus yards downfield within the first half. 

Each of those quarterbacks will power the ball down the sector greater than their opponents did of their prior Week 1 video games. 

And they need to have time to take action. 

That’s as a result of these offensive strains each did an impressive job holding their quarterbacks clear. 

Final week, the Jaguars received stress at only a 19% price on Wentz. 

The Eagles received stress at only a 26% price on Goff final week. 

These numbers ranked within the backside six within the NFL final week. 

This recreation is the one matchup of Week 2 that includes offensive strains that ranked top-10 within the least stress allowed Week 1. 

Then, there’s the bottom recreation. 

47% of Jaguars RB runs vs. Washington gained 3-plus yards earlier than contact. That was the best % within the NFL. 

Jags operating backs gained 7.5 YPC (No. 2 in NFL). And but Doug Pederson’s Jaguars handed the ball on the second-highest price within the NFL final week. 

Trevor Lawrence averaged simply 6.5 YPC, a full yard lower than the Jags operating backs gained.   

When the Lions face this Washington run protection, you may count on they may run the ball and probably get much more manufacturing than the Jaguars did. 

Washington’s run protection allowed opposing RBs to publish these numbers final week: 

2.5 yards earlier than contact per try (No. 29 within the NFL) 
5.1 yards after contact per try (No. 31 within the NFL) 
7.5 yards per carry (No. 31 within the NFL) 
+0.18 EPA/rush (No. 29 within the NFL) 

And this was the Jacksonville run offense.   

That is music to Detroit’s ears. That’s as a result of final week, Detroit’s RBs gained: 

2.2 yards earlier than contact per try (No. 6 within the NFL) 
4.5 yards after contact per try (No. 4 within the NFL) 
6.6 yards per carry (No. 3 within the NFL) 
+0.36 EPA/rush (No. 1 within the NFL) 

Detroit ran the ball on the third-highest price of any group in Week 1 within the first half and the best price of any group besides the 2 that performed within the monsoon in Chicago (Bears and 49ers). 

Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Let’s talk about the considerations with each offenses primarily based on what we noticed Week 1: 

First, each offensive strains had been atrocious in getting run-blocking lanes open for the operating backs. 

Within the first half towards the Jets, the Ravens operating backs averaged -0.86 EPA/att and 1.2 YPC. Each ranked worst within the NFL. 

They averaged -0.5 yards earlier than contact per try, that means their offensive line allowed penetration and the RBs to be hit a half a yard within the backfield. 

Issues didn’t enhance a lot within the second half, and all through your complete recreation, their RBs ranked third-worst in dashing effectivity.   

And that was towards a Jets protection that ranked twenty sixth in dashing effectivity final 12 months.

Lamar Jackson throws three TDs in opener

Lamar Jackson throws three TDs in opener

Shannon Sharpe grades Lamar Jackson’s efficiency in Baltimore’s 24-9 win over the Jets.

Left deal with Ronnie Stanley’s ankle harm nonetheless wasn’t healed sufficient, and so they simply misplaced Ja’Waun James, who began in his place at left deal with. The Ravens must discover an offensive deal with to assist assist depth and are right down to their third-stringer. 

Total, the Ravens ranked No. 28 in yards earlier than contact per try, and the operating backs ranked No. 24. 

The Dolphins weren’t significantly better on the opposite aspect of the ball. Miami’s backs ranked No. 26 in yards earlier than contact per try.   

each of those run video games, their RB ranks on early downs had been:

Yards earlier than contact/rush: No. 24 and No. 26 
Yards after contact/rush: No. 27 and No. 30 
EPA/rush: No. 27 and No. 29 
Longest rush: No. 27 and No. 29 

Whereas the Ravens confronted extra stacked containers (fifth-highest price of seven-plus man containers), and that may clarify some numbers, the Dolphins confronted the eighth-lowest price of seven-plus man containers. And but they nonetheless couldn’t generate a lot on the bottom. 

In consequence, I’m involved with each run video games and what that can imply for each quarterbacks.   

Final week for Lamar Jackson, it meant it was on his shoulders. 

Sure, he threw three TDs, however his success price was twenty second within the NFL, and he averaged the NFL’s highest air yards within the league final week. 

However Lamar was additionally bottled up on the bottom. And most of all, he wasn’t scrambling. 

Lamar scrambled twice for eight complete yards. His EPA per scramble ranked beneath Matt Ryan towards the Jets. 

He additionally had two designed runs which gained -0.22 EPA per try. 

How does this examine to 2021? 

In 2021, he averaged 6.5 designed runs per recreation within the video games he began and completed. And he averaged 4.7 QB scrambles per recreation. 

In 2021, QB scrambles produced +0.28 EPA/att and designed runs produced -0.01 EPA/rush. 

It solely was one week, so we shouldn’t take a lot from the sport. I’m as large a Lamar stan as there’s, however the lack of operating was attention-grabbing, and I’m curious what occurs this week towards the Dolphins. 

I’m additionally to see what Greg Roman tries to do in another way towards the Dolphins this 12 months as a result of we keep in mind what occurred within the final Ravens recreation towards the Dolphins. 

Lamar’s -0.29 EPA/dropback on 48 dropbacks was his worst of 2021.   

His complete EPA on dropbacks was -14.1, which was the worst recreation of his total NFL profession. 

He averaged 5.5 YPA, which was the fifth-lowest in his profession.   

He was hit six instances and sacked 4 instances. Miami harassed him persistently, and Baltimore higher have a solution for that protection this 12 months. 

Per Wealthy Hribar’s Worksheet, when these groups met in Week 10 final 12 months, they blitzed Jackson on a career-high 60% of his dropbacks.   

The Jets blitzed Lamar simply 5 instances final week. However the issue? They received stress on 60% of blitzes, which ranked No. 1 within the NFL.   

The Dolphins received in some follow final week, blitzing Mac Jones on 30% of his dropbacks (Eleventh-highest price). 

On the opposite aspect of the ball, there are nonetheless considerations with the Dolphins’ offensive line primarily based on what emerged vs. the Patriots. 

On dropbacks that New England DID NOT BLITZ, they received stress 43% of the time. That ranked No. 1 within the NFL.   

For context, the most effective protection within the NFL final 12 months was at 35% on the season, and the typical was 28%. 

And when the Patriots DID BLITZ, they received stress at an equal 43% price.   

In consequence, no quarterback was underneath stress extra usually final week than Tua Tagovailoa.

Which is kind of problematic when going up towards a extra gifted protection of the Ravens. 

When it comes to normal offensive effectivity: 

The Dolphins had only one offensive landing towards the Patriots, and it got here on a fourth-and-7 on the New England 42 with 24 seconds left within the first half. 

Miami’s second-half drives:   

8 yards and punt 
50 yards and FG 
9 yards and punt 
9 yards and punt 
47 yards, kneels to finish the sport 

In the meantime, the Ravens had a whopping 12 drives on Sunday vs. the Jets. 

Solely two of 12 drives gained 35-plus yards. 

Solely three of 12 drives gained multiple first down. 

And solely one among 10 drives that began in Ravens territory made it out of Ravens territory. 

These numbers are SHOCKINGLY unhealthy. 

That is why the Ravens led simply 3-0 with 4 minutes left within the first half. The offense was merely unproductive in each which method attainable. 

So whereas it appeared AWESOME that Lamar Jackson threw three touchdowns after not getting the contract he deserved, and the notion was unimaginable, this was a nasty Ravens offensive output. 

And whereas it appeared AWESOME that Mike McDaniel received his first recreation of his profession and soundly defeated the nemesis Patriots 20-7, this was something however a stable Dolphins offensive efficiency. The group had 18 first downs and was compelled into 14 third-down makes an attempt. Total, 22% of the Dolphins’ offensive performs had been third downs, which ranked fifth-worst within the NFL final week. And solely 21% of their early-down performs gained first downs, which ranked ninth-worst within the NFL. 

I’m to see which group turns it round offensively first Sunday. 

Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS)

Denver at house within the first two weeks of the season is 33-5 SU and 24-12-2 ATS (67%) since 1989. 

As well as, these video games have gone over the entire in 25 of 38 video games (66%). 

Since 2010, these video games are 11-5 to the over (69%). 

The final 3 times, nevertheless, the video games have gone underneath. However that primarily was due to first-half sluggish begins. The primary halves noticed a median complete factors scored of 11.6 factors, whereas the second halves featured 21.3 factors scored. 

During the last 10 years, first-half complete factors scored in these video games has averaged 20.5 factors, whereas second-half factors had been over 5 factors increased (25.6). 

For comparability, round the remainder of the NFL, the typical first-half complete factors scored was 22.4 and the second half factors had been 23.2. Thus, lower than one full level separated the primary and second halves vs. over 5 full factors on this recreation. 

Bucs are slight favorites to defeat rival Saints

Bucs are slight favorites to defeat rival Saints

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are 2.5-point favorites towards the Saints.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports activities App)

What’s going on with the Saints protection? 

Marcus Mariota dropped again to move 18 instances on early downs within the first three quarters final week. 

Guess what number of pressures the Saints received? 

Zero.

Zero pressures. Clearly, that ranked worst within the NFL. Each different group had not less than two pressures and or not less than an 11% stress price (common was 29% stress price). 

The Saints received stress on simply 9.4% of dropbacks, No. 32 within the NFL final week. 

New Orleans received stress on simply 8% of early-down dropbacks, which ranked No. 31. And that’s going to be a significant drawback towards a group that really desires to drop again and move rather a lot just like the Bucs. 

In 2021, the Saints’ run protection ranked No. 1 in EPA/rush allowed to RBs (-0.20) and No. 5 in yards earlier than contact per rush (0.92). 

However final week, they allowed +0.03 EPA/rush (No. 25) and a couple of.46 yards earlier than contact per rush (No.28). 

Sure, the Saints know this Bucs offense, and sure, they’ve had a ton of success towards it beforehand. However they’d higher have the ability to get stress and cease the run, or they received’t have a shot at profitable this recreation. 

NFL analyst Warren Sharp joined FOX Sports activities for the 2022 NFL season. All year long, he’ll recap the highest video games of the week and sit up for the numbers that may give you a betting edge. 

Play FOX Tremendous 6 each week on your probability to win hundreds of {dollars} each week. Simply obtain the Tremendous 6 app and make your picks at the moment!


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