NFL odds: How Justin Herbert’s damage impacted Week 3, MVP traces

By Patrick Everson
FOX Sports activities Playing Author

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is formally listed as questionable for Sunday’s residence recreation in opposition to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Oddsmakers and bettors seemingly beg to vary. The Jags-Chargers recreation noticed a big Friday afternoon drop on the NFL Week 3 oddsboard, for each the purpose unfold and the entire. In different phrases, Herbert isn’t anticipated to take a snap Sunday.

It went just about simply as veteran oddsmaker Rex Beyers predicted in a Thursday morning FOX Sports activities report.

“The line and total won’t close anywhere near where they are now, 7 and 47.5,” Beyers mentioned then. “The spread will be 3 points higher or 3 points lower, maybe 4, depending on if Herbert plays.”

New Numbers

Certainly, by the point the mud settled Friday afternoon, the Chargers dropped from a consensus 7-point favourite right down to -3. That each one occurred within the span of about 45 minutes, even with no official phrase on Herbert’s standing as he works by means of a rib damage. About an hour later got here Herbert’s formal designation of questionable. Whereas some sharp bettors seemingly beat the information and made bets on Jaguars +7/+6/+5 and so on., oddsmakers had been undoubtedly on high of the state of affairs.

“We got ahead of the move and the [questionable] tag,” mentioned Neil Fitzroy, danger supervisor/oddsmaker at The SuperBook. “We took a Jags bet at +4 from a respected player. We’re currently at Chargers -3 (-120). He hasn’t been ruled out yet. But if he is, [the line] should go down another point or so.”

Likewise, WynnBet dropped from Chargers -7 to -6, then to -5, in simply six minutes. A couple of half-hour later, L.A. dipped straight to -3.5, earlier than stabilizing at -3 (-120).

“It looks like Herbert isn’t going to go, so we moved accordingly,” WynnBet dealer Andy Morrissey mentioned. “The total crashed Under as well.”

After opening at 47 and sitting at 47.5 since Wednesday morning, the entire made a precipitous drop this afternoon. It initially dipped 1.5 factors to 46, then steadily made its approach right down to the present 42.5 at WynnBet.

Trying into the Futures

Assuming Herbert’s damage is minor and causes not more than a one-week absence, bookmakers held agency on the Chargers’ Tremendous Bowl odds. Los Angeles was +1600 earlier this week at BetMGM and stays +1600 at present.

However, Herbert’s NFL MVP odds have slipped over the previous week at BetMGM. Herbert opened +1400 months in the past and, after Week 1, was the +750 third alternative, trailing solely Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

On Tuesday, BetMGM had Herbert, the +1000 co-third alternative, tied with quickly rising Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts. However, Herbert has now slid to the +1400 fifth alternative.

Allen leads the NFL MVP odds pack at a tidy +280, adopted by Mahomes (+450), Hurts (+900) and Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (+1100).

Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for He beforehand labored for Covers and is a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting house. He’s primarily based in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Comply with him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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