Let’s be actual: The Week 2 school soccer slate’s affect on the playoff race is … minimal.
Of the 82 contests that includes FBS groups, there are solely two video games — two! — by which each groups have College Football Playoff leverage of a minimum of 1%, based on the Allstate Playoff Predictor. In different phrases, there are simply two video games by which the distinction in probability to achieve the playoff with a win and with a loss exceeds 1%.
Alabama at Texas is the plain candidate with respectable playoff leverage for every group — although the Crimson Tide have an 82% probability to win, per ESPN’s Football Energy Index. The opposite sport is Baylor at BYU, by which the Cougars squeak in with a single proportion level of playoff leverage in what needs to be a tighter affair (FPI makes Baylor a 58% favourite).
That is it. There are different video games which are consequential within the sense that they might have an effect on the playoff race if the contending favourite loses.
Once more, in different phrases — exterior of the 2 contests talked about on the high — this week is all about groups defending their playoff chances and paths. Let’s discuss these two video games, what different groups may journey up in Week 2 and what the affect could be. We’ll ignore these with a 90+% probability to win and give attention to the a minimum of barely possible losses.
Alabama (82% probability to win) at Texas
Alabama playoff leverage: 19%
Texas playoff leverage: 14%
FPI is all in regards to the Longhorns, a minimum of comparatively. Although Texas is nowhere to be discovered among the many AP Prime 25, our predictive mannequin is a believer, making Texas the seventh-best group within the nation going ahead. Whereas FPI is not precisely anticipating an in depth consequence (it favors the Crimson Tide by 12.8 factors), it does anticipate a better contest than Caesars Sportsbook, which has Alabama as a 20-point favourite.
An Alabama loss would drop the Crimson Tide to a 68% probability to achieve the playoff, placing them behind solely Ohio State and Georgia however nonetheless forward of Clemson. It could additionally rocket Texas as much as a 23% probability to achieve the playoff, which might be the sixth-highest probability. A Texas win would give the Longhorns respiration room: In the event that they gained the Massive 12, even when they dropped a sport elsewhere, they’d stay a lock to achieve the playoff with the convention title and win over Alabama. That is nonetheless an enormous if, although.
Notre Dame playoff leverage: 14%
A loss to Ohio State is actually forgivable within the (forecasted) eyes of the choice committee. A loss to Marshall? Not a lot, and it will be a playoff projection killer, clearly.
That is firmly within the extreme-long-shots-but-not-literally-impossible class, to be truthful. However FPI respects Marshall: The Thundering Herd are the No. 53-ranked group and the fifth-best Group of 5 group, based on the mannequin.
Baylor (58% probability to win) at BYU
Baylor playoff leverage: 8%
BYU playoff leverage: 1%
That is Baylor’s most tough contest till it heads to Norman to face Oklahoma in November. However the upside is there for the Bears: If they will get previous the Cougars — who’re within the AP Prime 25 however are simply on the skin for FPI (No. 28) — and Texas loses to Alabama, Baylor would turn out to be the Massive 12’s greatest probability at changing into a playoff group at 13%.
BYU shouldn’t be actually a playoff contender — the Cougars sits at beneath 1% and, even when they completed undefeated, they’d have lower than a 50% probability of incomes a bid — however would tick up with a win towards Baylor, as that is the Cougars’ second-most tough contest this 12 months (moreover Notre Dame).
USC (75% probability to win) at Stanford
USC playoff leverage: 5%
In the event you’d requested me which group I used to be most involved with FPI being low on within the preseason, USC would have been it. However the mannequin adjusts, and one sport later the Allstate Playoff Predictor offers the Trojans the Eleventh-best shot to achieve the playoff. However that would shortly evaporate in Lincoln Riley’s first Pac-12 convention sport if USC slips up towards Stanford.
Tennessee playoff leverage: 4%
FPI is shopping for the Volunteers within the sense that they’re on this listing in any respect. If Tennessee was in some way to achieve the playoff (we’re stretching in a light-weight week right here, OK?), the trail of least resistance would in all probability be a single loss, to Georgia, and ending 11-1. However truly, in any state of affairs, there is no method Tennessee can afford a loss to Pittsburgh with each the Bulldogs and the Crimson Tide on its schedule later this 12 months.