NFL Week 11 odds, picks and finest bets

Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears have been on an offensive tear.
Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears have been on an offensive tear. (Washington Put up illustration/Nam Y. Huh/AP)

Remark

So: Final week was not my finest week. None of my picks — not the Dallas Cowboys, not the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams, nor Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa — cooperated. In truth, you may argue all of them conspired towards me. I received’t take it personally, however they need to know that we all know what occurred.

Let’s begin with Dallas, a finest guess over the Inexperienced Bay Packers. The Cowboys jumped out early and had a 14-point lead on the finish of the third quarter, giving America’s Staff a 95 % win chance, per ESPN. Actually they need to have coated a 4½-point unfold, proper? In spite of everything, they have been 180-0 all-time when main by at the least 14 factors by means of three quarters, and 195-0 if you happen to embody the playoffs. Pricey reader, it pains me to say: They may not. The Packers scored two touchdowns within the fourth quarter, compelled extra time after which walked off with a 31-28 win because of Mason Crosby’s 28-yard subject objective.

In the meantime, Arizona and Los Angeles went into the half with a rating of 17-3, giving us hope the below would money. Nope. Backup quarterbacks Colt McCoy and John Wolford led their offenses to a mixed 24 factors within the second half, busting the below. The sport was tied, 3-3, on the first half’s two-minute warning, at which level the below felt completely secure. Nonetheless, the entire moved down within the days earlier than the sport, indicating that our course of was sound. Lastly, my participant prop — Tagovailoa ending with below 268½ passing yards — would additionally bust together with his 285-yard effort, regardless of the quarterback having simply 42 passing yards within the first quarter.

The important thing numbers for NFL betting — and the best way to use them to your benefit

The lone shiny spot was the Minnesota Vikings beating the Buffalo Payments outright in extra time, cashing the Vikings +6½ ticket advocated earlier within the week earlier than the uncertainty round Payments quarterback Josh Allen was resolved. Allen did play, however he was not at his finest, tossing two interceptions within the loss.

Picks have been made towards the consensus level spreads as of Tuesday morning; odds which have since modified have been up to date in daring sort, however picks are locked in on the earlier odds.

1. Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Decide: Chicago Bears +3 or +140 on the cash line

Chicago’s offense has improved over the past three weeks, with every week higher than the final. Quarterback Justin Fields is main this cost, largely on the bottom, the place he’s produced a median of 128 dashing yards per recreation. He’s additionally bought 4 dashing touchdowns over that three-game span.

I’d count on one other huge recreation towards Atlanta. The Falcons are permitting 6.3 yards per carry to quarterbacks this season — the league common is 4.7 — and opposing quarterbacks are producing 12 extra factors per recreation than anticipated on the bottom after factoring within the down, distance and subject place of every rush towards Atlanta, per information from TruMedia. That offers the Falcons the NFL’s worst dashing protection towards quarterbacks this season.

2. Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-3½)

Decide: Detroit Lions +3½, playable to +3

The Giants have scored 21 extra factors than anticipated off turnovers in 2022, the fifth-highest whole within the league. The Lions have barely benefited in any respect from turnovers, scoring three fewer factors than anticipated. In any other case, regardless of their data, these have really been very comparable groups. New York has been the nineteenth finest crew after adjusting for opponent, per Soccer Outsiders. Detroit is ranked at No. 22. Professional Soccer Focus ranks the Giants twenty ninth and the Lions twenty seventh after every play and judging them on their deserves, not simply the outcomes.

My very own energy rankings have this recreation Giants -1, however I wouldn’t wager on Detroit getting fewer factors than the important thing variety of three. At lower than that, I’d again the Lions on the cash line.

3. Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Payments (-8½)

Beneath 43½, playable to 40. For the sport, the decide is the Payments -8½, nevertheless it’s not a finest guess.

This whole has moved considerably since I began scripting this blurb early Tuesday — it began at 47 — so proceed with warning, though I do assume there’s nonetheless some room to work with. There’s a likelihood for vital snow accumulation within the Buffalo space, with current forecasts elevating the potential of a number of toes of snow. Additionally aiding a low whole is the forecast of 20 mph winds, with the potential of 37 mph wind gusts. It’s going to be robust to play effectively in these circumstances. There are usually not a variety of historic video games to attract from, however since 2000, video games performed below comparable circumstances have gone over the entire simply two out of 10 occasions, lacking the over by a median of 9 factors.

I’ve a number of performs working for this game, together with below 47, below 44½ +116 and below 30½ +830. I additionally invested in longest subject objective below 47½ yards at -115 odds, and for the sport to have zero or one whole touchdowns scored at +4100 odds. I’m additionally taking part in unders within the Akron at Buffalo school recreation on Saturday.

The performs above signify our greatest bets of the week as a result of our evaluation reveals their worth is essentially the most profitable in contrast with what we count on to occur on the sphere. Under, you can find against-the-spread picks for all the video games on this week’s schedule. Nonetheless, attempting to choose each recreation is one thing of a idiot’s errand. The home wins so usually partly as a result of bettors attempt to make too many performs when the chances aren’t of their favor. Maintain that in thoughts when evaluating the remaining video games from the Week 11 slate.

4. Tennessee Titans at Inexperienced Bay Packers (-3)

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Decide: Inexperienced Bay Packers -3

5. Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-12½)

Decide: Carolina Panthers +12½

6. New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3½)

7. Philadelphia Eagles (-6½) at Indianapolis Colts

Decide: Indianapolis Colts +6½

8. Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-4)

Decide: New Orleans Saints -4 or -6½ at +140 or higher

9. Washington Commanders (-3½) at Houston Texans

Decide: Washington Commanders -3½

10. Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2½)

Decide: Denver Broncos -2½

11. Dallas Cowboys (-1½) at Minnesota Vikings

Decide: Minnesota Vikings +1½

12. Cincinnati Bengals (-4½) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Decide: Cincinnati Bengals -4½ or -6½ at +120 or higher

13. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-6½) at Los Angeles Chargers

Decide: Kansas Metropolis Chiefs -6½

14. San Francisco 49ers (-8) at Arizona Cardinals

Decide: Arizona Cardinals +8

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