NFL picks, odds and finest bets for Week 7

Montrell Washington's muffed punt contributed to Denver's 19-16 loss to the Chargers on Monday night. (Washington Post illustration//Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Montrell Washington’s muffed punt contributed to Denver’s 19-16 loss to the Chargers on Monday night time. (Washington Submit illustration//Sean M. Haffey/Getty Photos)

Remark

The Thursday night time information that star working again Christian McCaffrey was traded from the Carolina Panthers to the San Francisco 49ers impacted the purpose spreads for 2 Week 7 video games.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened as five-point favorites over the Panthers, though that quantity had already risen to 10½ by Thursday afternoon. By Friday morning, the Buccaneers had been favored by 13 in opposition to a Panthers group that simply shipped out its finest weapon. McCaffrey is averaging 111.7 whole yards per recreation and has two touchdowns, and his absence removes a key playmaker from an already poor offense. That’s along with the Panthers’ different issues: coach Matt Rhule was fired after a Week 5 loss to those self same 49ers, and P.J. Walker will begin at quarterback on Sunday because of accidents suffered by Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold.

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The 49ers, alternatively, had been three-point underdogs to the Kansas Chiefs earlier this week, a quantity that already moved to 2½ by Thursday. As of Friday morning, the Chiefs had been favored by simply two factors.

In the meantime, right here’s our Week 6 abstract: Whew. The Cincinnati Bengals ended up with a four-point win over the New Orleans Saints because of a two-minute drill that resulted in a 60-yard landing move from Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase. (We solely wanted them to cowl a one-point unfold for our greatest bets, however the line closed at Bengals -3.) I’ll admit: That decide didn’t look fairly, or promising, early on. In truth, the Bengals by no means had a lead till that decisive drive. They, had been, nonetheless, the higher group. Burrow and the remainder of the offense managed 6.4 yards per play in comparison with 5.6 for New Orleans, and Cincinnati had a hit fee of 59 p.c on first or second down. (These are performs that earned a primary down or landing.) The Saints earned a brand new set of downs or scored a landing on simply 38 p.c of early downs.

The entire scored by the New York Jets and Inexperienced Bay Packers, sadly, fell in need of 46½ factors, thanks largely to these groups going a mixed 0 for 3 within the crimson zone. The Packers averaged simply 4.0 yards per play, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers gave the impression to be extra bothered by his thumb harm than anticipated, finishing 26 of 41 passes for 246 yards and a landing. The poor passing efficiency led to a commanding 27-10 upset by the Jets by which the over wasn’t severely threatened.

Talking of passing performances, Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady, regardless of surprisingly enjoying from behind the complete recreation, was held to 243 passing yards by the Pittsburgh Steelers’ protection, cashing the underneath 277½ passing yards proposition we advocated late final week.

Picks had been made in opposition to the consensus level spreads as of Tuesday night; odds which have since modified have been up to date in daring sort, however picks are locked in on the earlier odds.

1. New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-0.5)

Choose: New York Jets +1.5, though the unfold was Jets+3 and even an costly +3½ on the time of this writing, however has since moved down significantly.

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The Jets are on the upswing. Since quarterback Zach Wilson received wholesome, Gang Inexperienced is scoring 12 extra factors per recreation than anticipated after accounting for the down, distance and subject place of every play, per information from TruMedia. Wilson, after all, relieved Joe Flacco underneath middle, and Flacco’s offense was scoring 13 factors fewer than anticipated. The Jets have coated the unfold by a median of 19.2 factors over the three-game stretch with Wilson, together with the upset over the Packers on Sunday.

The enjoyment (and alternative) of betting NFL look-ahead strains

New York’s offense can’t take all of the credit score for this scorching stretch. Its protection has been the seventh finest within the league, per Professional Soccer Focus, whereas Soccer Outsiders ranks it eleventh. Over the previous three weeks, the Jets’ opponents are scoring 13 fewer factors per recreation than anticipated, one of the best mark within the NFL over that span.

Denver is trending within the different route, having coated the unfold simply twice, with an anemic offense averaging 12 fewer factors than anticipated over the previous three weeks. This decide was made earlier than studies emerged that quarterback Russell Wilson’s hamstring harm might be severe, information that moved the purpose unfold from +3 (and even an costly +3½) to a much less fascinating +1½ or worse, however the Jets are nonetheless the decide, as much as -2½ if Wilson is out and as much as a decide’em if Wilson performs.

2. Inexperienced Bay Packers (-5) at Washington Commanders

Choose: Beneath 41½ factors, playable to underneath 40. The entire has since moved to 41. The sport decide is Commanders +5½, however it isn’t a finest wager; that quantity has since moved down.

There are quarterbacking considerations for each groups on this matchup between disappointing NFC golf equipment. Packers Coach Matt LaFleur instructed reporters that Rodgers’s thumb, injured whereas he was sacked on the ultimate play in a Week 5 loss to the New York Giants, was “hurting” through the loss to the Jets on Sunday. Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz has a fractured finger on his throwing hand and will probably be sidelined, opening the door for former starter Taylor Heinicke.

Uncertainty hardly ever makes something higher, and these two offenses mixed to attain 24 fewer factors than anticipated final weekend. In truth, after adjusting every group’s scoring fee for the defenses they’ve confronted and giving every squad an anticipated 11 drives to work with, I challenge 34 factors Sunday, prompting me to hunt some various (decrease) totals at plus cash.

3. Participant prop of the week

Terry McLaurin, over 4.5 receptions at +130 odds

McLaurin will get a well-recognized face underneath middle this week in Taylor Heinicke, filling in for Carson Wentz after Wentz suffered a finger harm that required surgical procedure. Wentz focused McLaurin six instances per recreation by way of six weeks, leading to a median of three.5 receptions per contest. Heinicke, Washington’s former starter, focused McLaurin nearly eight instances per recreation, averaging 4.5 completions per matchup. Plus, Inexperienced Bay’s secondary is likely one of the NFL’s worst in opposition to an opponent’s high receiver, in line with Soccer Outsiders, permitting 61 receiving yards per recreation on a median of seven targets.

The performs above characterize our greatest bets of the week as a result of our evaluation exhibits their worth is essentially the most profitable in contrast with what we count on to occur on the sector. Beneath, you can see against-the-spread picks for the entire video games on this week’s schedule. Nevertheless, making an attempt to select each recreation is one thing of a idiot’s errand. The home wins so usually partly as a result of bettors attempt to make too many performs when the chances aren’t of their favor. Maintain that in thoughts when evaluating the remaining video games from the Week 7 slate.

4. Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals (-6½)

Choose: Cincinnati Bengals -6. (This quantity has since moved up.)

5. Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6½)

Choose: Baltimore Ravens -6½

6. Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2½)

Choose: Indianapolis Colts +3 or +125 or higher on the cash line. (This quantity has since moved down.)

7. Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

8. New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)

Choose: Jacksonville Jaguars -3

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13) at Carolina Panthers

Choose: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -11 (This unfold has since moved up.)

10. Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders (-7)

11. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-2) at San Francisco 49ers

Choose: Kansas Metropolis Chiefs -3. (This quantity has since moved down.)

12. Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers (-5)

Choose: Los Angeles Chargers -6½. (This quantity has since moved down.)

13. Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (-7)

Choose: Pittsburgh Steelers +7

14. Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-8½)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. | ESPN, ESPN2

Choose: New England Patriots -8. (This quantity has since moved up.)

15. New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2½)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. | Prime Video

Choose: New Orleans Saints +1½ or +115 or higher on the cash line. (This quantity has since moved up.)

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