College soccer picks, finest bets, locks, favorites, underdogs, over/beneath

USC and UCLA could find the end zone a whole lot in Saturday's rivalry game.
USC and UCLA may discover the tip zone an entire lot in Saturday’s rivalry recreation.

Remark

This column was a Mississippi cowl away from an 0-4 weekend this previous Saturday, when Illinois and UCLA let me down as favorites whereas New Mexico couldn’t preserve tempo with Air Drive as an enormous underdog. We’re working out of time to show issues round, however at 22-21-1 for the season there’s nonetheless an opportunity to maneuver into the profitability zone.

All spreads and totals had been taken Wednesday from the consensus odds at VegasInsider.com except famous. All instances Jap on Saturday except famous.

NFL finest bets for Week 11: Justin Fields retains getting higher

No. 7 USC at No. 16 UCLA, over 75, 8 p.m., Fox

This can be a excessive whole, however it’s warranted contemplating each groups’ all-offense, no-defense methods. To wit:

  • UCLA ranks third nationally in offensive success charge, and USC ranks fourth. Their defenses rank 112th and 119th, respectively.
  • The Bruins’ protection has given up 149 scrimmage performs of no less than 10 yards (97th within the nation), and the Trojans have given up 152 (one hundred and first).
  • Each of those offenses have been nice at retaining drives alive on third and fourth downs, with UCLA posting a national-best success charge of 60.2 percent and USC at 55.7 p.c, which ranks sixth. Conversely, each defenses have been dismal at getting opposing offenses off the sector: The Bruins rank 103rd nationally in third/fourth down success charge, and the Trojans are even worse at one hundred and twenty fifth.

Sure, UCLA put up a season-low 28 factors towards a very dangerous Arizona protection this previous weekend, however that was extra the Bruins’ fault than anything. UCLA nonetheless averaged 6.1 yards per play, and 7 of its 10 drives crossed the Arizona 30-yard line. However three of them resulted in zero factors (a fumble, a missed subject objective and an end-of-game lack of downs), and that was the distinction. Arizona quarterback Jayden de Laura additionally averaged 11.3 yards per try towards the Bruins’ protection, and USC quarterback Caleb Williams (31 passing touchdowns, two interceptions, 8.8 yards per try this season) may very well be in line for an enormous day.

Final yr’s UCLA-USC recreation featured 95 factors, and that was earlier than Lincoln Riley introduced his offensive wizardry and a bunch of gaudy transfers to the Trojans. I count on a bunch of factors once more.

U-Va. soccer recreation vs. Coastal Carolina canceled after three gamers killed

No. 20 Central Florida (-16.5) vs. Navy, 11 a.m., ESPN2

Navy is 5-0 towards the unfold as a double-digit underdog this season, however the Midshipmen are taking part in within the last contest of a grueling three-game stretch, have questions at quarterback, don’t have any hope of a bowl recreation at 3-7 total and maybe have began eager about their annual tilt with rival Military on Dec. 10. This all units up nicely for UCF, which can look to take care of momentum from this previous weekend’s win at Tulane because it tries to safe the Group of 5’s spot in a New 12 months’s Six bowl recreation.

Navy seemed hopeless within the first half of this previous weekend’s recreation towards Notre Dame, which scored touchdowns on 5 of its six first-half possessions and missed a subject objective on the one it didn’t. However the Midshipmen utterly modified defensive ways within the second half, blitzing usually whereas using a cover-zero bundle — every receiver was lined man-to-man, with no deep assist from the safeties — within the secondary. The change appeared to baffle the Preventing Irish, who gained a paltry 12 yards within the second half however held on for a 35-32 win.

UCF quarterback John Rhys Plumlee threw solely three passes towards straight man protection towards Tulane, but he completed all three for 30 yards. In opposition to Memphis on Nov. 5, he accomplished 6 of 8 passes for 73 yards towards man protection. The week earlier than towards Cincinnati, UCF quarterbacks accomplished 61.9 percent of their passes for 145 yards towards man protection (Plumlee was injured within the second quarter and changed by Mikey Keene). The purpose is Plumlee most likely received’t be as befuddled by Navy’s schemes as Notre Dame quarterback Drew Pyne appeared to be. UCF ranks 20th in passing success rate overall, whereas Navy’s protection ranks a hundred and twentieth in that class.

It’s unclear who will begin at quarterback for Navy. Xavier Arline, who started the season as a backup, left the Notre Dame recreation with an obvious leg damage within the fourth quarter and was changed by Maasai Maynor, who was showing in solely his sixth recreation over three seasons. It’s all so much to ask of a staff that fought laborious in losses to Cincinnati and Notre Dame and now should face a 3rd straight robust opponent.

Two-loss LSU strikes as much as No. 6 within the College Soccer Playoff rankings

Louisiana Lafayette (+24) at No. 19 Florida State, midday, ESPN3 streaming

Florida State has received its previous three video games by a mixed 124-22, with the previous two victories approaching the street. The Seminoles lastly are trending in the precise path in Mike Norvell’s third season as coach, and quarterback Jordan Travis has accomplished 75 p.c of his passes with 9 passing touchdowns and just one interception in these three massive wins.

Louisiana Lafayette, in the meantime, is muddling alongside at 5-5, an enormous letdown after final season’s historic 13-1 marketing campaign. The Ragin’ Cajuns will fall wanting their anticipated preseason win whole (the quantity was 8.5 victories), and they should win certainly one of their last two video games to qualify for a bowl.

So why, then, do I just like the underdog to remain moderately shut right here? For starters, Florida State’s spectacular three-game stretch has come towards Georgia Tech (which already had fired its coach), Miami and Syracuse (each in free fall). Plus, the Ragin’ Cajuns’ energy lies of their cross protection, which is permitting a decent 6.9 yards per try and has extra interceptions (14) than touchdowns allowed (13). In its most up-to-date recreation, a 36-17 win Nov. 10 over a Georgia Southern staff that passes at one of many highest charges within the nation, Louisiana Lafayette gave up just one passing landing to quarterback Kyle Vantrease, and his 57.1 completion proportion was his second-worst mark of the season.

This additionally is an efficient situational spot for the Ragin’ Cajuns, as a result of the Seminoles may be looking forward to subsequent weekend’s season finale towards Florida. With each Sunshine State rivals creeping again to respectability, it’ll be the primary time in a number of years that the matchup could have a lot in the way in which of warmth to it, and the Seminoles may both let their guard down or relaxation their starters if issues get out of hand early. The SP+ effectivity metric pegs this as nearer to a 13-point Florida State win, and I like the large canine to maintain issues no less than considerably respectable.

Buffalo vs. Akron, Akron staff whole beneath 19.5 factors, 3:30 p.m., CBS Sports activities Community

It’s turning into more and more possible that this recreation will probably be performed in snowy, windy situations as a lake-effect storm pummels the Buffalo space between Thursday and Sunday. This might hinder an Akron offense that passes the ball 60.6 p.c of the time (sixth nationally) and has gained 77.8 p.c of its yardage by means of the air this season (eighth nationally).

There’s additionally the matter of the Zips’ quarterback scenario. Starter DJ Irons left Akron’s earlier recreation — a 34-28 loss to Jap Michigan on Nov. 8 — within the second quarter due to damage and didn’t return, and backup Jeff Undercuffler was ineffective, finishing lower than 50 p.c of his passes and throwing two interceptions.

Akron might want to run the ball to have a lot of a shot in blustery situations, however the Zips rank 130th out of 131 Football Bowl Subdivision teams in anticipated factors added per rush whereas Buffalo’s protection ranks third in that class. Don’t be deceived by the numbers put up by Akron’s Cam Wiley within the Jap Michigan recreation. Of his 144 dashing yards, 73 got here within the fourth quarter when the Zips had been down three scores and struggling to maneuver the ball by means of the air (55 of these yards got here on one fourth-quarter landing run). Wiley had rushed for less than 44 yards in his earlier 4 video games mixed.

Akron is 1-9 and hasn’t crushed an FBS staff this season. Buffalo wants one win for bowl eligibility. The Bulls and the climate ought to preserve the Zips off the scoreboard.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *