Broncos vs. Jaguars in London

Welcome to a particular free sampling of the Fantasy Soccer Playbook, with protection of the London sport between the Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars, airing solely Sunday on ESPN+ at 9:30 a.m. ET.

The Playbook is your information to the week’s slate of NFL video games, that includes rating projections, over/unders, win chances and, in fact, simply digestible fantasy recommendation for season-long and DFS leagues. This information ought to enable you with all types of decision-making, together with sit/begin choices, last-minute waiver provides and lineup decisions.

We have additionally included some highlights from one in every of Mike Clay’s standout weekly items, usually out there solely with an ESPN+ subscription. Each week of the NFL season, Clay delivers his Shadow Report, analyzing the important thing matchups between vast receivers and cornerbacks that will help you get a leg up on the fantasy competitors.

Clay additionally contributes to our knowledgeable Chalk crew of fantasy and betting analyst crew, with an eye fixed in the direction of providing up their opinions on which props and team-based wagers are probably the most advantageous to the bettor. We have requested him to serve up a few of his favourite participant props for Sunday’s ESPN+ London sport beneath. You possibly can try the remainder of our betting content material for extra Broncos vs. Jaguars picks and betting ideas.

Fantasy outlook

  • Russell Wilson (hamstring) missed Week 7, and though he is anticipated again this week, he will not be a powerful fantasy starter in London. The struggling quarterback has managed just one weekly end higher than 14th this season. Just one quarterback has scored greater than 11.5 fantasy factors in opposition to Denver this season and that was Geno Smith (17.2), method again in Week 1. In actual fact, each single opposing QB and WR unit has scored beneath its season common when dealing with Denver.

  • Trevor Lawrence has 4 top-12 fantasy outings this season, however he belongs on benches on this matchup.

  • Travis Etienne Jr. (career-high 18.9 fantasy factors final week and 100-plus scrimmage yards in three straight video games) is formally a weekly lineup lock after the Jaguars traded James Robinson to the Jets.

  • With Mike Boone now on IR, Melvin Gordon III (11 carries, 4 targets on 39 snaps in Week 7) and Latavius Murray (eight carries, three targets on 28 snaps) determine to share almost all the backfield work this week. This can be a good matchup (the Jaguars have allowed 130-plus RB yards in 4 straight video games), however the shared workload in a low-scoring offense limits the duo to flex territory. Gordon is the popular fantasy choice of the 2.

  • Christian Kirk rebounded with a 101-yard effort in Week 7, and he is dealing with a powerful 23% goal share. Lawrence’s prime goal stays within the WR3 combine, even in opposition to a Denver protection that has allowed the second-fewest WR yards and fantasy factors, in addition to the bottom WR yards per goal (5.8) and just one receiving rating. Zay Jones has seen eight-plus targets in 4 of his six video games, however he is greatest left on benches in what might be one in every of his hardest matchups of the season (and the identical goes for Marvin Jones Jr.).

  • Jerry Jeudy turned a season-high 11 targets into 96 yards final week, which helped him to his third top-20 fantasy outing. Jeudy is a stable WR3.

  • Greg Dulcich has performed on 65% of snaps since making his NFL debut in Week 6. He posted a 6-51-0 receiving line on 9 targets final week and seems to be locked in because the crew’s No. 3 pass-catcher. Dulcich is a fringe TE1.

  • Evan Engram has seen six-plus targets in three straight video games, having cleared 65 yards in two of these outings. Then again, he is but to search out the tip zone or attain 13.0 fantasy factors in any sport. Engram is a midrange TE2.

Shadow report

Jaguars WRs Marvin Jones Jr., Christian Kirk and Zay Jones vs. Broncos CBs Pat Surtain II, Okay’Waun Williams and Damarri Mathis

The Broncos have allowed the second-fewest WR fantasy factors (and the fewest over anticipated) this season. They have been wonderful in opposition to each the perimeter (sixth-fewest factors allowed) and slot (second-fewest allowed). Jones Jr. (89% perimeter) and Jones (62%) do most of their work exterior and can see a ton of Surtain and Mathis on this sport. Each might be downgraded. Surtain has shadowed in 4 video games this season, however all of that was on the perimeter, so Kirk (75% slot) will see him on not more than a handful of performs. As famous, although, Denver has additionally been good in opposition to the slot, so expectations for Kirk ought to be downgraded a bit in opposition to Williams.

Broncos WR Courtland Sutton vs. Jaguars CB Tyson Campbell (Shadow)/Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy vs. Jaguars CB Darious Williams (Slot)/Broncos WR KJ Hamler vs. Jaguars CB Tre Herndon

Jacksonville’s prime CB Shaquill Griffin was positioned on IR, which is a success to a protection that has allowed the Twelfth-most fantasy factors to perimeter receivers this season. With Griffin out, we might see 2021 second-round decide Campbell shadow Sutton on this sport. Campbell, who has performed properly, has shadowed as soon as this season, and it was in opposition to Mike Williams in a sport Griffin additionally missed again in Week 3. It labored out properly for the Jaguars, with Williams catching simply one in every of his six targets (albeit for a 15-yard landing). Campbell was in protection on Williams on 27 of his 37 perimeter routes. Sutton traces up on the boundary 83% of the time, so if Campbell shadows, these two might be matched up on a majority of performs this week. That may additionally arrange Hamler with an excellent matchup in opposition to Griffin-replacement Herndon on the opposite aspect of the sector. Jeudy has a impartial matchup within the slot in opposition to Williams.

Participant props

Trevor Lawrence UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns (-194): Lawrence checks in with a 1.0 passing-TD projection for this sport. The second-year quarterback has thrown 9 touchdowns this season, however he has just one over his final three video games mixed. This week, Lawrence will face off with a Denver protection that has allowed a league-low three passing scores in seven video games. Two of these got here from Geno Smith method again in Week 1, which suggests Denver has allowed only one passing landing throughout its final six video games (and none in 4 straight matchups in opposition to the likes of Derek Carr, Matt Ryan, Justin Herbert and Zach Wilson). The vig is ugly, however Lawrence is an excessive lengthy shot to throw two passing scores.

Jerry Jeudy OVER 46.5 receiving yards (-117) and Courtland Sutton OVER 52.5 receiving yards (-151): Denver is struggling to attain touchdowns, however prime receivers Jeudy and Sutton have each racked up loads of yardage, so these traces really feel low. Sutton checks in with a projection of 67 yards, and Jeudy is simply behind him at 66 yards. Jeudy has reached 47 yards in 5 of his six full video games this season, with the exception being in opposition to a tricky 49ers protection in Week 3. He loved a season-high 11 targets in Week 7. Sutton is averaging a wholesome 8.3 targets per sport, and although he is fallen properly beneath 53 yards in two straight video games, he averaged 83.4 yards and cleared this mark 4 instances throughout his first 5 video games with Russell Wilson below heart. Even when he attracts Tyson Campbell shadow protection (as mentioned earlier), this line feels low for Sutton.

Zay Jones UNDER 42.5 receiving yards (-125): This may occasionally really feel like a low prop for a participant averaging 7.8 targets per sport, however Jones’ Week 8 projection is available in a hair beneath this line at 40.4 yards. In actual fact, he is fallen in need of 43 yards in three out of six video games, together with each one in every of his final three outings. Denver has allowed 113.1 WR receiving yards per sport this season, which is second lowest within the league. The Broncos are additionally permitting 9.4 yards per reception (lowest) and 5.8 yards per goal (lowest) to the place. Jones figures to see a good chunk of Surtain on Sunday and is an efficient guess for a down sport.

Andre Cisco OVER 3.5 mixed tackles (-166), Devin Lloyd OVER 6.5 mixed tackles (-163) and Foyesade Oluokun OVER 8.5 mixed tackles (+106): It might be robust for all three of those Jaguars defenders to hit the over on their sort out props, but it surely’s onerous to ignorance the proof for every of them. The vig is not interesting on two of those, however my projections are properly above the traces on all three, so I will gladly put a couple of dollars down. I’ve Cisco projected for five.5 tackles, Lloyd for 8.7 and Oluokun for 9.7. Cisco, the crew’s beginning free security, has performed on 99% of defensive snaps and is averaging 5.3 tackles per sport. He has reached 4 tackles in 5 out of seven video games, together with eight-plus in two straight outings. Lloyd (98% snap share) and Oluokun (100%) are Jacksonville’s every-down off-ball linebackers. Lloyd is averaging 9.0 tackles per sport and has hit at the very least seven in six out of seven video games, together with 5 straight. Oluokun is averaging 10.0 tackles per sport and has reached 9 in 4 out of seven video games, together with three of his final 4.